In a sea of sound, the genuine winners of Web3 will be those who turn raw on-chain information into actionable signals for sustainable development.
Upgraded Dec 23, 2024, 6:43 p.m. UTCPublished Dec 23, 2024, 6:35 p.m. UTC
Web3 is drowning in metrics, the majority of which paint an uncertain image. Deal volumes, token rates and fancy headings frequently mask what truly matters: the quality of user engagement and the capacity for natural, rapid development. As the market moves beyond the buzz, reputable, data-driven signals of success are no longer optional– they’re vital.
Here’s fortunately: the tools to cut through the sound currently exist. By integrating several on-chain metrics into a single “health index” rating showing the depth and quality of total user engagement, we can recognize which chains are genuinely prospering and poised for long-lasting development. With 2024 ending, let’s go into what these signals expose about today’s leading chains, and what we can anticipate in 2025.
Examining user quality utilizing aggregated, not separated, information
When developing a sustainable on-chain community, it does not make good sense to enhance any single user action. What’s required is context– a method to measure not simply whatever users are doing, however how and why it matters. One appealing technique to attain this is to aggregate user habits into 5 core classifications:
- Deal Activity, varying from area trades to wise agreement interactions.
- Token Accumulation in the medium-to-long-term, and other “financial investment” habits.
- DeFi Engagement for activities like staking, loaning and liquidity arrangement.
- NFT Activity such as minting, trading and utility-driven interactions.
- Governance Participation to measure DAO or procedure governance contributions.
Most importantly, these metrics ought to not be dealt with similarly. A much better method is to weigh and integrate them utilizing a Bayesian design to produce a single top-line “rating.” Unlike conventional scoring systems that count on fixed limits or easy averages, this lets us include both anticipation (what we get out of an “typical” wallet) and brand-new proof (real activity observed on-chain). These vibrant, multi-variate ratings are much more difficult to video game and for that reason most likely to expose precise, actionable insights.
What the information informs us about 2024
The above method supplies a fresh viewpoint on each chain’s user activity through 2024. Let’s focus on a few of the more unexpected findings.
Source: Flipside Crypto (flipside.xyz)
Solana (the leading light blue line that peaks at ~ 2.75) drew in a substantial share of premium users in between February and mid-March, however engagement quality has actually fallen considering that. Remarkably, this downslide accompanied SOL’s very first cost and trading volume spike of 2024, and has actually continued through the present memecoin mania. Repeated actions have decreasing returns when evaluated utilizing a Bayesian design, suggesting several token swaps yield smaller sized rating enhancements than engagement throughout numerous kinds of activities, for any offered wallet. This recommends most Solana users are presently participated in a narrow variety of on-chain activities that aren’t adding to Solana’s multi-sector development.
