Today in forecast markets:
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Governmental wagering passes $30 million on Kalshi.
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Trump name-drops Polymarket– or attempted to, anyhow.
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Arb chance? There’s an inconsistency in between Polymarket’s specific swing state markets and an agreement about all of them.
02:28
Trump Pumps DeFi Token Sale; Bitcoin Price Jumps Above $65K
02:01
Trump-Endorsed Crypto Project Confirms Plan for a Token; Bhutan Holds Over $780M in Bitcoin
02:15
“Inside Trump’s Crypto Project; Ripple’s Upcoming Stablecoin To Launch in ‘Weeks’: Garlinghouse”
02:15
“Inside Trump’s Crypto Project; Ripple’s Upcoming Stablecoin To Launch in ‘Weeks’: Garlinghouse”
This U.S. election cycle will be over in 2 weeks. For some, it will be a sigh of relief. Forecast market platforms are having the time of their lives.
Kalshi, which just introduced election forecast market agreements in October after a beneficial court judgment versus the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, just recently passed $30 million in trading volume on its primary election agreement. It still routes Polymarket, which did about $40 million from early January to early February, its very first month of governmental wagering, and just recently passed $2 billion. As a managed platform, Kalshi had to sit on the sidelines till it won in court.
The marketplace offers Republican candidate Donald Trump a 14 portion point lead over his Democratic competitor Kamala Harris. These chances should come entirely from U.S. nationals (and irreversible homeowners), since Kalshi’s terms forbid foreign nationals from trading on the platform.
By contrast, the market leader Polymarket forbids U.S traders from the platform however does not need a know-your-customer procedure to confirm who is who. Polymarket’s bets are denominated in cryptocurrency, whereas Kalshi’s are settled in routine dollars.
Some may have believed that Kalshi was coming to market with a handicap, due to the fact that it’s controlled. This has actually permitted the platform to leave the claims of market control by shadowy, potentially foreign, dark cash that have actually dogged Polymarket.
Rather, Kalshi developed a counterclaim to such allegations for its much bigger rival.
In a thread on X (previously Twitter), Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s co-founder, detailed how market control fails on his platform, where, as on Polymarket, Trump leads with a commanding margin.
“The typical bet size on Harris is LARGER than the average bet size on Donald Trump,” he composed. “Trump’s chances are not the outcome of a couple of individuals pressing the chances up. It’s the opposite.”
Browsing Dune, a crypto analytics website (Kalshi would not be on Dune as it’s not a crypto platform), the bet size numbers aren’t too away on Polymarket.
Information reveals that general on the website the mean wagering size is in between $10 and $50.
